The supply and demand trend of plastics
Recently, with consumption season the whole plastic stock downward, the weakness of the LLDPE since December last year, show a strong rebound, and listed on the new PP also follow up. In terms of supply and demand pattern, although after April plastic consumption will present seasonal decline, there are big variations, but also on the part of the supply of plastic short-term there is still the possibility of larger repeatedly.
Plastic overall inventory after the Spring Festival does not continue upward, but as the film consumption season starts, declines gradually. According to the same caliber estimates that by the end of the weekend refinery inventories fell back to 950000 tons, the peak close to 20%, and recovery of consumption on spot prices are also evident in the support, the dalian exchange, LL and PP are maintaining backwardation pattern.
Market has widespread concern about the new capacity in 2014 and put into operation or to the forward price of plastic forming huge, especially in the aspect of PP, this also prompted the dalian Commodity Exchange (microblogging) PP contract forward greatly discount. But, more than the old device maintenance and new device delay lead to the excess supply of spot hasn't appeared, but cause low spot inventory, induce futures L1301, L1305, frequent L1309 crowded warehouse phenomenon.
In terms of LL and PP, also there is the possibility. In terms of the supply of previously announced plans, 2014 LL new device size is relatively limited, sichuan petrochemical 400000 tons of ethylene has been put into production in early march, is still in a trial stage; And the second half of the year only two coal chemical plant start-up; But big PP production scale, more than 400000 tons of devices including sichuan petrochemical, yulin energy chemical industry, the yangzi petrochemical, shenhua ningxia coal, the annual total more than 4 million tons of new equipment.
Related capacity could well put into production, however, there is still some uncertainty, and may, after the supply side may still have many equipment maintenance. LL aspects, at present has been largely determine zhenhai refining or after overhaul in May, but shenhua or gradually after may halt production; PP is a massive overhaul in the near future, multiple devices currently is still in the idle state.